Week 5: Buffalo is a Favorite to beat the Jags?!?!

OK, Sports Fans, that was a rough week! But Like I've been saying this whole time, the beginning of the season is the hardest to predict, especially against the spread. And I have to remind you that my goal of this program is to be able to make a pick on every game every week. Professional handicappers only make one or two plays a week. That's no fun!!


I want my clients to be able to bet against their friends or in the casinos on the games that they want to watch and make more interesting. The games that have personal meaning to them. Fans in Philly want to bet on the Eagles games. Indy wants to bet on Colts games. And, Arizona fans want to know how many points the Cardinals are going to lose by. If the only play I'm offering that week is Minnesota over Buffalo, I have three cities full of unsatisfied customers.


I can only tell you who's more likely to win and last week was full of surprises. Here are the results:


Straight: 6-8 (33-29)
ATS: 3-11 (31-31)
Over/Under: 8-6 (29-33)


Not the results I'd like to see, but my ATS numbers are right at .500 and there's plenty of season left. On to Week 5!


Guaranteed Money Pick
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills (-1)
What is Vegas thinking this week?!? Buffalo is giving points here when they need all that they can get. Homefield advantage isn't going to be enough to halt the Jags after a huge last second victory against the Colts last week. That alone should make the Jags a three point favorite. Look for Jacksonville to exploit the league's worst running defense and gain more momentum for their team. Jags will be up 21-3 by half-time, then maybe Buffalo makes it interesting. Final score, Jags-24 Bills-17.


Too Close to Call Pick
Minnesota Vikings @ New York Jets (-4)
I don't want to bet on this one. Minnesota picked up Randy Moss and he and Favre are going to be explosive together. But the Jets are no strangers to this dynamic wide receiver. They had the answer for the Patriots back in Week 2, and I think they'll be able to work something out for the born-again Viking. I wouldn't advise betting on this one, but if you insist I'll take the Jets to win and barely cover the spread 19-13.


Genius Underdog Pick
Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts (-7)
Now, I know you think it's crazy, but hear me out. KC is coming off of a bye. They've had 2 weeks to plan for this game. The Colts are coming off of a heartbreaker against the lowly Jags. There are going to be a bunch of intangibles in this game. I'm not saying the Chiefs will win straight but I have a feeling it's going to be a little too close for Peyton Manning's liking. If you're looking for an underdog play this week, take the Chiefs and the points. Colts win but don't cover 24-21.


Here are all the picks:


Game....................Straight..............ATS.............O/U
Jax@ Buf(-1)................Jax.........................Jax....................o40
KC@ Ind(-7).................Ind.........................KC.....................u45.5
TB@ Cin(-6.5)..............Cin..........................Cin....................o37.5
GB(-2.5)@ Was............GB..........................GB.....................u44
Stl@ Det(-3).................Det.........................Stl......................u43
Chi@ Car(-1.5).............Chi.........................Car.....................u33.5
NYG@ Hou(-3)............NYG......................NYG..................u47.5
Den@ Bal(-7)................Bal.........................Bal.....................u39.5
Atl(-3)@ Cle.................Atl..........................Atl.....................u41
NO(-7)@ Ari................NO..........................NO....................u44
Ten@ Dal(-7)...............Dal..........................Ten...................u42
SD(-6)@ Oak...............SD...........................SD.....................o45
Phi@ SF(-3).................Phi..........................Phi....................o38
Min@ NYJ(-4).............NYJ........................NYJ..................u39


Byes: Mia, NE, Pit, Sea


Just a reminder to everyone, I love feedback. If there's something you want to see, any good ideas, suggestions or comments, don't hesitate to contact me at smurph215@yahoo.com and check out the facebook page at Murphy's Pickem to really get your voice heard!