10-3 Straight, 11-2 ATS, A Very Good Week

Hey there, Sports Fans! Now, this is more like it. The alternative scoring system missed completely. I might take another look at it, but for now I'll stick with what I'm doing.

Week 7 Results: Straight 10-3 (67-36); ATS 11-2 (55-48)

Now, the numbers may not seem to stand out compared to other NFL handicappers, but a lot of that has to do with the fact that many of the other guys only pick 3 or 4 games a week or less. I make a pick on every game every week. If a friend challenges you to a bet, are you going to chicken out just because it wasn't one of the few games your handicapper picked that week?? You have to know the best play for ANY game. And that's what you get here at Murphy's Pickem.

Moving on, most of my readers are closer to Delaware than any other legal football betting venue. However, until another hearing in December, state law will only allow parlay bets of at least 3 games. So, I'm introducing a new segment of the newsletter here called....(trumpets)...MURPHY'S PARLAY SPECIAL where I tell you what some of my parlay cards would look like for each week.

So on to Week 8:

Murphy's Pick of the Week: New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)
Now, I go by the odds on Tuesdays and Wednesdays so the spread could obviously change, but the Eagles should not be the favorite here. Bet the farm on the best defense in the league overwhelming a mediocre team who has looked unimpressive of late. Giants will win 25-16.

Murphy's Impossible Play: Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets (-3)
When these two AFC East rivals met in week 5, the Jets were -1.5 and the Dolphins came away with the 31-27 win. This week, the game is at New York, and the Jets are giving 3 points. This one's going to be very close, so don't bet on it. My best guess is that the Jets win straight but the Dolphins beat the spread. Final score Jets 21 Fins 19.

Murphy's Genius Play: Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay (-3)
Earlier in the season, I would have picked the Vikings to win hands-down. However, since then, the Vikings impenetrable defense has weakened, and Green Bay's offense is of top-ten caliber. Everyone is going to be focused on this one because of Favre's first game against the Packers, so when it comes up, look like the genius and predict the Packers to win and cover, 28-18.

Murphy's Parlay Special:
3-game : NYG(+2.5)@Phi ; Hou(-3.5)@Buf ; GB(-3) vs. Min
6-game : Car(+9.5)@Ari ; NO(-10) vs. Atl ; Ind(-12) vs. SF
9-game : Jax(+3)@Ten ; Dal(-9.5) vs. Sea ; Det(-4) vs. Stl

Picks Not Shown: Den(+3.5)@Bal ; Mia (+3)@NYJ ; Chi(-13.5) vs. Cle ; SD(-17) vs. Oak

In the interest of my chances of winning a straight pickem pool, I'm not going to post my straight picks any more. Take my word for the results each week. I'm always happy to answer personal emails for picks. So, if you're that curious email me at Smurph215@yahoo.com. However, most of them you can guess from my ATS picks. Until next time, Sports Fans. Good luck with your plays.

What is going on?!?! Week 7 Picks

An identical week to last, this week's results are mediocre at best. Picking straight winners last season seemed to be very easy. However, predicting scores and winners against the spread is proving to be much more difficult. This week, I will be running my normal system as well as an alternate score predictor. The alternate system generated four different winners against the spread than the original calculator. So, if the alternate proves to be more accurate than I'll use that to run my program.

But, while I'm testing the new system, my posted results will reflect the system I have been using. I'm sort of getting spanked in my pickem pools, so I have to change something.

Week 6 Results: Straight 7-7 (57-33) ; ATS 6-8 (44-46)

Murphy's Pick of the Week: New York Jets(-6) @ Oakland Raiders
A lot of people want to jump on the Raiders' bandwagon because of the surprising win last week against the Eagles. Don't fall for it! The Raiders still exercise one of the most futile offenses in the league. The Jets will definitely overcome by a large margin. I'll take the Jets here 24-7.

Murphy's Impossible Play: Philadelphia Eagles(-7) @ Washington Redskins
This one is tempting. Washington seems like a pushover for the playoff caliber Eagles, but last week really shook me on taking Philly automatically here. They are out of sync and therefore unpredictable. I think they'll win it, but I'm not putting money on it. Eagles 17-10.

Murphy's Genius Play: Chicago Bears @ Cincinnati Bengals(-1.5)
Cincinnati is one of my favorite teams this year, and I think most fans will agree considering the wins over Baltimore and Pittsburgh. However, losing to Houston last week could be a sign of losses ahead. So, while everyone is betting the Bengals and wondering why the spread is so low, you do the genius thing. Take the Bears to win away 21-17.

GAME............................ ATS PICK................ STRAIGHT PICK
GB(7.5)@Cle........................GB...................................GB
SD(-5)@KC..........................SD....................................SD
Ind(-13)@StL......................Ind...................................Ind
NE(-14.5)@TB.....................NE...................................NE
Min@ Pit(-4)........................Pit....................................Pit
SF@ Hou(-3)........................SF....................................Hou
Buf@ Car(-6.5).....................Buf..................................Car
Atl@ Dal(-4).........................Dal...................................Dal
NO(-6.5)@Mia.....................NO...................................NO
Ari@ NYG(-7)......................NYG................................NYG

Only 13 games this week with 6 teams on bye. Limits your parlays a little bit. Careful with your plays, Sports Fans, and good luck.

Horrible Week: Rethinking Whole Program

After a very unsuccessful week, I'm thoroughly debating my whole program. I'm in a rush to get this week's picks out, so I hope you guys can do without the appetizer and dessert cause you're just getting the entree.

Week 5 Results: Straight 7-7 (50-26) ; ATS 6-8 (38-38)

I'm seriously considering revamping the math on my whole program, but I had a bizarre week like this last season too. During Week 6 last year, I made only 5 correct picks out of 14 but by week 7 I was back up to 12-2. So, I'm going to try to look past this week as the ATS results have been pretty consistent. I am trying to find some trend in the successful games and might make a change by Week 7. For now, I'll stick with what I got and see if Week 5 was just a disgusting fluke.

Also, I will start offering some parlay suggestions to give you guys some more interesting reading material. Enjoy your week everyone. Here are my picks:

Game........................................ATS Pick......................Straight Pick and Final Score
Stl @ Jax(-10).............................Jax..............................................Jax 29-18
Det @ GB (-13.5).........................Det.............................................GB 36-24
Hou @ Cin(-5)..............................Hou............................................Cin 27-23
Bal @ Min(-3)..............................Bal...............................................Bal 28-24
KC @ Was(-6.5)...........................Was.............................................Was 24-8
Car(-3.5) @ TB............................Car...............................................Car 21-14
Cle @ Pit(-14)..............................Pit.................................................Pit 33-7
NYG @ NO(-3)...........................NYG..............................................NYG 27-24
Phi (-14)@ Oak...........................Phi................................................Phi 43-3
Ari @ Sea(-3)..............................Sea................................................Sea 26-16
Buf @ NYJ(-10)..........................Buf................................................NYJ 21-13
Chi @ Atl(-3)...............................Chi................................................Atl 23-21
Ten @ NE(-9.5)..........................NE................................................NE 30-16
Den @ SD(-4)..............................Den..............................................Den 31-12

Week 4 Results - Week 5 Picks

How's it going, Sports Fans? The NFL Season is in full swing and last week was a great time to be a football fan! Everybody who has ever heard of football has a favorite team, but a true fan can enjoy a great game of football even if the result has no repercussions for or against his respective team. And Week 4 was one of those weeks that had quite a few great games and kept the true football fan entertained. Still trying to get a handle on predicting winners against the spread, but straight picks continue to be consistently successful.

Week 4 Results: Straight - 12-2 (43-19) ; ATS - 7-7 (32-30)

Had to wait a bit to post this week with the Braylon Edwards trade going on and the Michael Crabtree drama finally ending, but here we are: Week 5.

Murphy's Pick of the Week - New England Patriots (-3) @ Denver Broncos
This is going to be a great game. The Pats' big-play offense is up against the most complete defense in the league. Denver will be at home trying to continue their undefeated season and is looking as good as, if not better than, they have in years, but I think New England can stop them in their tracks. It's going to be a great game! I'm taking New England giving 3. Pats win 18-12.

Murphy's Impossible Play - Jacksonville Jaguars @ Seattle Seahawks (0)
Both of these teams have been irritating me all season. Their numbers are consistently deceiving and both teams keep surprising me, negatively and positively. I am done putting any faith into what these teams have to offer. Stay away from this one, but since I make a pick on every game, I'll take the Jags with no spread, 27-25.

Murphy's Genius Play - Washington Redskins @ Carolina Panthers (-3.5)
This is a big game for both teams. It is a good opportunity for Carolina to finally get a win this season, and Washington needs to win to keep pace in the tough NFC East. Not to mention the Redskins are still recovering from the embarassing loss to the Lions two weeks ago. I liked what I saw from them last week, and I think they can potentially squeeze out another win here. I'll take the Redskins and the points in a surprising final 23-10.

You guys reminded me that I haven't been including my straight picks so I decided to add them as well as a final score prediction. Let me know what you think of this new format.

Game...........................ATS Pick......................Straight Pick and Final Score
Cin @ Bal(-8.5)........................Bal..............................................Bal 34-16
Min(9.5) @ Stl.........................Min.............................................Min 32-8
TB @ Phi(-15).........................Phi...............................................Phi 44-9
Oak @ NYG(-14.5).................NYG............................................NYG 33-3
Dal(-8) @ KC...........................Dal...............................................Dal 41-17
Pit(-10.5)@Det........................Pit...............................................Pit 39-14
Cle @ Buf(-6)...........................Buf..............................................Buf 29-19
Atl @ SF(-2.5).........................SF................................................SF 24-8
Hou @ Ari(-5.5)......................Hou..............................................Hou 27-24
Ind(-3.5) @ Ten......................Ind...............................................Ind 35-19
NYJ(-1.5) @ Mia.....................NYJ..............................................NYJ 15-12

By showing you guys my final score predictions it shows you how sure I am of each pick and should the spreads change, as they often do, you will be able to adjust your picks accordingly. Also, this information will be sold for around $60 each week when I finally get around to selling it. You're all getting it for free all season long. Other guys charge thousands of dollars for this information. Good Luck with your plays everyone and have fun.

Back in Action Week 2-3 Results and Week 4 Picks

Welcome back, everyone!! Sorry about last week, but I still got the picks out and they were some great ones!!

Week 2 Results: Straight- 9-7 Against the Spread- 7-9
Week 3 Results: Straight- 12-4 Against the Spread- 11-5
Overall Results: Straight- 31-17 Against the Spread- 25-23

The best week so far, I think the results of Week 3 will continue. Remember, most people doing what I'm doing have similar or worse results and charge up to $3000 per month for the same information that I'm giving away for free for the whole 2009 season. Stick with Murphy's NFL Pick'em, and sound like an expert all season long.

Some good underdog wins last week. I don't think anyone could have predicted Detroit breaking their 19-game loosing streak against Washington, but I did predict the Bengals overcoming the defending champion Steelers. How many sports "experts" did that?

On to Week 4:

Murphy's Pick of the Week: Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots (-2)
This is shaping up to be a great matchup. The Patriots are favored in Vegas, but I'm not seeing the chemistry from New England that I did during the dynasty years. Baltimore, on the other hand, is adding a quality offense to its already reputable defense. Take the Ravens in this one 28-19.

Murphy's Impossible Play: Buffalo Bills (-2) @ Miami Dolphins
This one is too close to call. Keep your money in your pocket. Miami is eager for a win this season, and Buffalo is beginning to hear the ticking of the T.O. time bomb. If I was forced to choose I'd say Miami takes it in a close one 23-21.

Murphy's Genius Play: Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (-10)
Everyone is giving the Lions praise because they finally won a game before the world ends in 2012, but I'm not buying it. They're still the Detroit Lions! Now, they're getting ten points here so a lot of people will be tempted to jump on board, but stick your guns. Give the ten points and take the Bears who have won they're last two games. Bears win 27-12.

Here's the rest (ATS winners in CAPS):

CIN(-5.5) @ cle
OAK @ hou (-9.5)
SEA @ ind (-9)
TEN(-3) @ jax
NYG(-9) @ kc
tb @ WAS(-7)
nyj @ NO(-6.5)
dal (-3) @ DEN
stl @ SF(-9.5)
SD @ pit(-6.5)
gb @ MIN(-3.5)
Byes: Arizona, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Carolina

Good luck everyone and don't forget to send your feedback to Smurph215@yahoo .com or comment the facebook page. Until next week.

Not Easy Handicapping Football in the Army

As most of you know, I'm an Army Reservist and for the last week I've been doing some training up in Massachusettes. It was really difficult to find time to get my NFL work done so I have to make this post short and sweet. No clever banter, just picks. I get home later this week and I will update you all on the results last week and in week 3.

Only two underdog wins predicted for this week; not a lot of fun matchups

winners in CAPS:

ten @ NYJ(-2.5)
jax @ HOU(-4)
kc @ PHI(9.5)
cle @ BAL(13.5)
NYG(-6.5) @ tb
WAS(6.5) @ det
GB(-6.5) @ stl
sf @ MIN(-7)
atl @ NE(-4)
chi(-2)@SEA
NO(-6) @ buf
mia @ SD(-6)
pit(-4) @ CIN : Believe it!!
DEN(-1) @ oak
ind @ ARI(-2) : probably one of the better games this week
car @ DAL(-9)

This army training has put me behind on most of my contests, so I'll probably just try again next year. My program isn't exactly where I want it to be yet. I will probably tweak it a little next week so be prepared to see more wins.

Good Luck all! And have fun!!

Week 1 Results / Week 2 Picks

What a week in the NFL!! It is so great to have football back in our lives!! The program is struggling a little against the spread but I sort of expected this for the first to weeks. Much of the data that I use to make my predictions is based on how teams are playing that season. In the first two weeks, there just isn't much of the data that I need. So, I expect another slow week coming up, but Week 3 should be the first of many successful weeks

WEEK 1 RESULTS: Straight - 10-6 ; Against The Spread - 7-9

The Pick of the Week and even the Impossible Play came out successful last week, but I came up short on the Genius Play, and I went 3-2 in the Hilton Contest. I'm still confident things will improve, but I would have liked a little more.

Big injuries again this year in the first week remind us of the Patriots' loss of Tom Brady last season. Already, Brian Urlacher is gone for the year, Donovan McNabb will miss some time and Troy Palamalu provides half of the proof of the Madden Cover Curse with a hurt knee. Larry Fitzgerald better watch himself.

Some great finishes, too, last week included Tom Brady's late comeback over the Bills, Brandon Stokely's right-place-right-time winning touchdown catch and the Titans' and Steelers' overtime thriller in the season debut. Really entertaining football!!

On to this week. NFL Week 2 Predictions!!

Murphy's Pick of the Week: St. Louis Rams @ Washington Redskins (-10)
After a tough divisional loss against the Giants last week, look for the Jason Campbell and the Redskins to come out firing. It's their home opener and they have drawn the St. Louis Rams, a mediocre team at best. Don't be afraid of all the points being given to the Rams. Take Washington to win 24-10.

Murphy's Impossible Play: New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles (0)
Stay away from betting this one; it will come down to the wire. Philly is without their star quarterback but have the defense to counter Drew Brees' arm. This one could easily go either way so I would keep my money in my pocket if I were you. I have the Saints taking it 24-20.

Murphy's Genius Play: Cincinnati Bengals @ Green Bay Packers (-9)
This one is going to make you look really smart. The Bengals are a little underestimated here. 9 points might be a hair too many to give for the Packers. I think Green Bay has a good chance of winning, but I'll take Cincy in the upset 27-13.

And the rest (ATS winners in CAPS):

hou @ TEN (-7)
ari @ JAX (-3.5)
oak @ KC (-3)
min (-9.5) @ DET : Detroit's home and will probably lose but I think it'll be closer than you think.
ne @ NYJ (-5.5)
CAR @ atl (-6): I got Atlanta straight but Carolina will beat the spread.
TB @ buf (-4.5)
SEA @ sf (-1.5)
BAL @ sd (-3.5) : This is going to be a great one to watch.
pit (-3) @ CHI : The Steelers are going to miss Palamalu
cle @ DEN (-3)
nyg @ DAL (-3)
ind (-3) @ MIA

Have fun, everyone, and good luck with your plays.

HERE WE GO!! NFL WEEK 1 - Predictions

And now, the time you've all been waiting for, the picks are in from Murphy's Pro Football Pickem Master. This year, I am utilizing a new computer program I've written to predict winners of NFL games against the Vegas Line. Last year, I did the same thing straight and predicted 71% of the games correctly. I'm offering all picks for free this season as a promotion for when I start up my NFL handicapping business. So, follow my progress and tell your friends. Word of mouth is my only advertising.

So here they are!

Murphy's Pick of the Week: St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-8.5)
I like the moves that the Seahawks have made since last year. Look for them to prove they have what it takes to contend. They're not gonna let up and will blow out the Rams 37-3.

Murphy's Impossible Play: Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-10.5)
This one looks tempting, but I would stay away. The Patriots are giving a few too many points and I think Buffalo has a chance to surprise some folks. If I had to, I would take Buffalo against the spread, but I think the Pats will win the game 25-17.

Murphy's Genius Play: San Diego Chargers (-9.5) at Oakland Raiders
I had it wrong before, thanks for calling me on it. Oakland is getting the points here, and it's a lot, but don't be afraid of the spread. No one will believe you with this one, so here's what you do. Go into work Monday morning. Talk about the football events of the past weekend, and when the subject of Monday Night Football comes around, offer someone a $50 bet and take the Chargers giving 9.5 points. You will eventually find a taker and and come Tuesday you'll look like a genius and get paid. Chargers win 38-7.

And the rest:
Ten @ Pit (-6): Pittsburgh wins and covers.
Mia @ Atl (-4): Miami with a big underdog win.
KC @ Bal (-12.5): Don't be afraid of the spread. Baltimore will cover.
Phi(-1) @ Car: Should be a good one. Take Philly to Cover
Den @ Cin (-4.5): Bengals win and cover.
Min (-4) @ Cle: Vikings Defense is going to be the story of the year. Minn wins and covers.
NYJ @ Hou (-4.5): Jets should be the favorite. Take NY in a big underdog win.
Jax @ Ind (-7.5): Call me crazy but I like Jacksonville here.
Det @ NO (-13): Lions D has made big improvements. Saints win but Lions cover the spread.
Dal (-6) @ TB: I'm a Cowboys Fan, but I think they'll disappoint. Bucs Win.
SF @ Ari (-6.5): Arizona wins, but just barely beats the spread.
Was @ NYG (-6.5): Giants win big.
Chi @ GB(-3.5): Bears will surprise most with the underdog win.

Good Luck with your Plays Everyone and Stay Tuned!!

Sports Monitoring and the Hilton Contest

I've been learning a lot about Sports Handicapping as a buisness in the last year. Some things I like and some I don't. I am pretty serious about turning my program into a ligitimate business as soon as next year. However, I wouldn't expect potential customers to trust my statistics and documentation of success. A scammer could easily forge those records and take your money. This is why I'm finding out more and more that to be taken seriously in the industry you must purchase a third-party monitoring service for your predictions. If somebody asks about your past success, you direct them to the sports monitor, and they can see all of your predictions and a percentage of success against the spread.

However, while searching different sports monitors, I'm finding that it is pretty expensive, some in upwards of $400 per month for subscriptions. Again, this is only to have your picks documented. Outrageous! After searching high and low, I finally found a monitor that was free, Sports-Bettors.com. Sports monitors offer access to their clients picks, and allow you to follow certain cappers' progress. Updates about the site to come.

Doing more research, I've been learning about a Sports Handicapping contest called the Hilton Contest. It's like the World Series of Poker's Main Event but for NFL handicapping. In Vegas, you buy-in for $1500 and the winner took home $210,000 last year. Handicappers pick five games a week against the spread and make one their "Top Pick." And, simply enough, the winner has the most correct guesses at the end of the season. Most "Top Picks" correctly guessed serves as a tiebreaker. I found a place to enter for free and have a chance to win $750. If my record is the best ever, I get $3000 to bet on the Super Bowl. I'll keep you updated.

I'll be posting Week 1's picks probably by Wednesday of next week. So, Stay tuned, and listen to hear about Murphy's Pick'em as an insanely accurate sports handicapper.

Delaware Football Gambling Limited

Oh, no!! For a while, it looked like NFL and NCAA football gamblers were going to have free reign in Delaware for this upcoming season. Originally, it was thought that single-game betting on these games would be allowed this year, but, due to NFL and NCAA appeals, that result has been somewhat reversed.

Here's the article: http://www.morningsun.net/business/x1886197958/With-new-limits-on-sports-betting-Delaware-casinos-rethink-plans

Basically, the three casinos in Delaware will only be allowed to accept parlay bets where a single bet must include three or more games. This is not what the state wanted. Parlay bets are far less attractive to the run-of-the-mill sports bettor. Therefore, far less revenue will be generated than the state originally expected, and the newly renovated sports betting areas of these casinos will not be put to full use. Hopefully, talks will continue and at some point in the future some sense will be knocked into the powers that be.

Look, people are gonna bet on single games regardless of the forum. If you don't want to offer a legal environment to allow it, local bookkeepers are happy to accept the bets. If the government wants to miss out on all that money they could be making through taxes, that's fine. We'll just take our business elsewhere. It's the American way. Man, I love this country!

So, get to know your local bookie! You, me and him are going to have a lot to talk about in the next few months!

I've gone through the testing of my program, and made some adjustments. Everything looks ready for Week 1. I'll be posting the results after the completion of the preseason. Good Luck, Everyone!

Murphy's Pick'em Now On Facebook

As a promotion of Murphy's Pro Football Pick'em Master, a facebook profile has been created and is growing fast. Search "Murphy's Pick'em" and it'll come right up, or click on the widget to the left to take you straight there. Hoping to keep myself visible as the 2009 season approaches.

Now I'm just starting out so I need your help. I don't have the capital to shell out up to $400 to be professionally monitored as a legitimate NFL handicapper. So, I'm counting on my fans to spread the word. You guys monitor my progress and tell your friends. I'm confident that my success will be very notable. Remember, all picks this season are free!!

Training Camps have started all over the nation and teams are beginning to get better looks at they're newly signed draft picks. But the big stories are centered on Micheal Vick and Plaxico Burress with a side of Brett Favre. Does this annoy anyone else??

You be the radio or TV sports reporter. What should we be hearing about? The legal issues and mid-life crises of the NFL outgoing or the top prospect effects of the talent incoming? Let's hear your two cents.

More Season Preparation

Hey Sports Fans! Been away for a bit but I haven't forgotten about you. First of all, everything is looking good in Delaware for sports betting in the casinos. I'll definitely be setting up a trip down there to win some cash.

In other news, I'm working on an updated version of a spread calculator for the games this season. Previously, the NFL Pick'em Master could only predict which team in a game would win (and did so with an accuracy of over 72%). Now, it can predict what the spread, or difference of the two teams scores, will be. And with a little testing over the first couple weeks, I think I'll be able to make very reliable predictions against the Las Vegas Line.

As an example: If Vegas predicts that the Patriots will beat the Dolphins by 8 points and my program predicts they will only win by 4, a smart bet would be to take the Dolphins. When the game is over, and the Dolphins lose by less than 8, you'll look like a sports predicting genius. And if you bet money on it, you'll also be richer. Everyone's happy!

To wrap it up for this edition, I want you all to check out adamwins.com. I may regret that I'm referring people to a competitor's website, but I do this for a reason. This guy does the same thing I do, and wants to charge people up to $3000 a month for his sports information. Are you kidding me?? Everything he's giving his customers I'm giving away for free. Who's got that kind of money in this economy. Now, I'm not going to lie, I eventually want to turn this program into a legitimate business but my charges will be much, much less.

So stick with me, Murphy Faithful, and don't forget to tell all your friends. See you next time.

Delaware Close to Legalizing Football Gambling

Just a local tidbit of news that my audience may find interesting....
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/news/story?id=4162225

To sum it up, Delaware is attempting to become the fourth state in the US to allow sports betting. Gov. Jack Markell's proposal was voted on and approved 17-2 for the new bill which will most likely be signed into law in the next few days.

Not much stands in the way of the bill's success, but the NFL and NCAA are opposed, citing that football, among other sports, is a game of skill and not chance. Hearings are scheduled for today (May 21) for the sports organizations to appeal to the Deleware Supreme Court with their arguments.

Such a bill is expected to greatly aid the state's $800 million budget deficit and produce $50 million of revenue in the first year.

If you're reading my blogs and are a fan of my program, this is big news. If we have a legitimate sports gaming environment as close as Delaware, many more people may be interested in my picks for the NFL season and we can shoot down and win some money. We'll see how these hearings go today, and I'll give you all updates when I can. Stay tuned, Sports Fans.

Getting Closer To Game Day

All right, Sports Fans, the draft is over, but there's still a long summer before Preseason in the NFL. I've begun making adjustments to each team's strength values based on the draft. Each team received a grade value for their draft choices. Combined with the grades of several other experts and each teams individual preseason capability, I should be able to come right out of the gate with accurate predictions.

I ran into a dilemma when trying to determine how I could make accurate first-week predictions, seeing as how my prediction criteria is largely based on how each team has performed so far that season. In the first game of the year there is no "performance so far" in that season.

I didn't want to base my decisions on preseason games alone, considering many teams are working out roster situations and position battles. And I couldn't base it simply on the draft when many rookies will not start for their respective teams right away. Therefore, through some mathematics, I came up with a formula to combine these two areas and we'll see how it goes.

One more thing to mention to my devoted fans is that most of my work this season will be done while serving as an activated army reservist. Hopefully, I'll still be in the country for most of the season, and will be able to write my weekly posts. No worries.

Alright, Sports Fans, don't forget to click 'follow' on the left to become an official fan of my blog. And, as always leave comments for everyone to see.

Rough Draft of Score and Spread Prediction

I worked on a Scoring program to add to the PickEm Master today. Now, it will still need some testing but here are some of the early results.

All the teams are based on their power rankings at the end of the 2008 regular season. Homefield Advantage and Winning/Losing Streaks have been disabled.


Philadelphia 22 - Dallas 14

Philadelphia 14 - Pittsburgh 10

Dallas 17 - Washington 14

Baltimore 10 - Pittsburgh 7

Pittsburgh 35 - Detroit 3

New England 29 - Miami 21

Pittsburgh 12 - Tennessee 9

New York Giants 27 - Indianapolis 14

Hope you found some of these interesting. If you have another matchup in mind, comment with it and I'll run it through the program.

So I'll be testing this method this season and if it starts to do better than the Vegas Lines my faithful fans and I are going to be making some extra cash.

Last Year's Blogs

I received a couple requests to move my old blogs from MySpace over to its new location here.....There are too many to copy and paste. Plus, reformatting them to fit this blog would be pretty hectic. So, to all who are interested, you can type in this address to view them on myspace even if you don't have an account.

http://blogs.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=blog.ListAll&friendId=67472718

Again, I'm still learning about this platform and will let you know things I've learned as I come across them. For example, if you click "Follow" on the left side of the screen, you can easily setup a free account to get sent email alerts of when posts are published. Then, you'll be noted as one of my fans on the site.

Another thing about the site is that anyone can comment on the blogs, even if you don't have an account. So, use it. State your opinions, disagree or root for your favorite team. The option is set up so comments are reviewed before posting, but as long as the comments are relatively clean they will be posted. Just click the "Comments" link at the bottom of each post.

I'm working on a method of assigning score differences to each game. That way you can compare my spreads to the Las Vegas Line and maybe make some solid bets. I'll let you know how this is going as it progresses.

Draft Day is soon approaching, and options are up in the air.....Stay Tuned!

Welcome Back, Sports Fans!

Hello and welcome to the new location of the Murphy's Pro Football Pick'em Master Newsletter!

To the newcomers:

The Pick'em Master is a computer program I've developed to accurately predict the winners of each week's NFL football games. Taking many factors into account and making several adjustments since week 5 last season I successfully predicted 72% of the entire NFL's games. And I got all the bugs worked out so look for that number to rise this year. If you'd like a copy of last season's End-of-Year summary, shoot me an e-mail at Smurph215@yahoo.com , and I'll see that you get one.

Each week, I'll show you what the program predicts, as well as a few comments about how the season is going and general news for your reading pleasure. So-called experts charge hundreds of dollars in subscription fees for this information and I offer it for free. Lucky you wandered by!

And to my veteran fans:

What a season we had last year! I had no idea my program would do so well! And, to the losers of that Pick'em Pool, thank you for delivering the winnings in a timely manner. But, we have another great NFL season approaching, Sports Fans! And, we have to get back to business. "Get your popcorn ready!" This is going to be a good year.

Up Next: The Draft!!